Кой отне Алепо от Асад: бивши джихадисти, станали автократи, искат нова роля в Сирия - haroonabadvital.com

Кой отне Алепо от Асад: бивши джихадисти, станали автократи, искат нова роля в Сирия – haroonabadvital.com

After at least a year in preparation, an extremist Islamist group, designated a terrorist organization by the United States in 2018 and considered terrorist by Russia and Turkey, has controlled the heart of the Syrian economy for decades, regaining control of eight of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. years ago. An opposition leader not affiliated with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham explained that the truce in Lebanon opened a door that seemed closed during the clash between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah. The group is not alone – elements of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army are also fighting alongside it – but it has led the offensive given the unusually large resources at its disposal.

Along with the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces, which control much of the country’s northeast, the group has something in common. The Syrian Democratic Forces enjoy support from the United States, but all players on the ground in Syria have kept them out of international talks to resolve the conflict. yet.

Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, in a conversation with CNN Washington, expressed “serious concerns” “about the organization’s goals.”

However, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is no ordinary rebel group, and this is not the first time it has changed the rules of the game in Syria. Years of fighting in the Syrian war have made her tougher and more professional, but there is something else at her disposal that helps her succeed: land.

What is Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and why does it rule parts of Idlib?

“Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” (“Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham”), which was established by Muhammad al-Julani, is considered another encapsulation of the jihadist formation “Jabhat al-Nusra” or “Jabhat al-Nusra,” which appeared in 2011. It then changed its name and merged with other formations, but was known as the branch. Al-Qaeda in Syria until 2016. It took its current name after severing those ties and joining four other Islamic militias and opposition factions.

However, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi also participated in establishing the Al-Nusra Front. The two, along with Al-Julani, were part of extremist activity against the American presence in Iraq, which later led to the creation of the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” organization headed by Al-Baghdadi.

Idlib – a “rebel dumping ground” where Assad can wreak havoc

Idlib has become its center of power in recent years. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham was able to control the lands where many people fleeing Assad had taken refuge after the “evacuation” of regime opponents from other governorates in previous years. A large portion of the total is 4 million. People in the governorate, many of whom – internally displaced people – ended up under its control in Idlib governorate. Its forces swelled to about 20-30 thousand. He lives while fighting with the regime in the period 2016-2020, until a Russian-Turkish truce almost froze the fighting.

Actual power

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is not a global jihadist organisation: it is not known to have ambitions outside Syria, and this focus is believed to be one of the main reasons for the breakaway from al-Qaeda. Meanwhile, since the territory was taken over, there have been concerns about human rights in the province and a brutal crackdown on dissent – even when it means members of rival gangs.

Even as different groups sought supremacy in Idlib, HTS distinguished itself as focusing on jihad rather than revolution against Assad, in a country where extremist religious movements are not widely popular. Indeed, al-Julani has demonstrated greater political flexibility in power, working to integrate local religious and political leaders into the swelling bureaucracy (including balancing the wings of his apparatus and reassuring al-Qaeda that he is not an extremist).

As of 2017, it was the de facto authority in Idlib Governorate, the local government, which in principle does not abandon its fundamentalist concepts. In November 2017, I proposed a “Syrian Salvation Government” with ten ministries. Prime Minister Mohamed al-Bashir, a former electrical engineer who worked on the Syria gas campaign starting in 2011; Ten years later, he graduated in Sharia and Law from the University of Idlib. For most of that time, it has ruled under US sanctions with limited access to economic influence and aid; He points out that both the United States and Russia are bombing it. Facing the need to make administrative decisions amid the coronavirus pandemic and after the devastating earthquake that occurred on February 6, 2023.

In one move, the jihadists and Turkey transformed the battle in Syria

Aaron Zelin of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy points out how HTS creates “imagined communities” by publishing a series of stories about towns and villages in areas under its control, in an attempt to show that it is part of a political unit, and to tell about landmarks in the region. For them…and their role in the Syrian revolution.

“Today, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is more recognizable as an authoritarian state than the transnational Islamist militia it was in the past,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank wrote in 2023. Another researcher calls it a “post-jihadist technocratic state.”

At this point, their propaganda videos demonstrated success as a force (and foreign media were allowed into the “country”); Critical publications accused them of deepening the economic and social abyss and that technocratic governments were nothing but a “front.” In 2012, after protests against al-Julani, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham announced a series of reforms aimed at liberation.

Even before that, Giulani tried to soften the message to attract more residents and give the impression of liberalization: for example by limiting the activities of the morality police.

The jihadists in power in Idlib opened an old cinema and raised morale

Try to improve the image

For this purpose, he addresses the media in the West directly. “It was a popular revolution that resonated around the world,” Al-Julani told PBS — in his first conversation with an American reporter — in 2021.

In his statements, jihad gave way to the terror of the oppressor Assad, who threw “400-500 thousand people” into prisons. “The truth deserves to be communicated to the whole world” sincerely, so as not to be distorted. More messages for listeners:

The region does not pose a threat to the security of Europe and America and does not organize operations abroad.
HTSH does not rule anything, it is just part of the popular revolution;
Labeling Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization is “politicized,” given that it has never threatened the West, but only criticized it for its actions against it.
No innocents were injured in the operations in Syria.
The relationship with Al-Qaeda in the past.

He tells about his childhood, how he became part of Al-Qaeda, and how years later Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham respects human rights and does not arrest anyone – if they are not responsible for criminal behavior. Al-Julani does not hide his desire to remove Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham from the American terrorist list, while not abandoning Sharia law, but he confirms that his ideas about Islam and the application of Sharia law have nothing to do with the Islamic State or Al-Qaeda.

Three years later, “soft power” is no longer enough for Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham in the new geopolitical situation in the Middle East, amid bombing by Syrian and Russian forces, while the group, which is unlikely to invade Damascus because it is threatened, seeks to get its share of the stage. Post-war. Syria war.

A perfect storm has reignited the front in Syria and left Assad in a dilemma

Haroonabad Vital

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Кой отне Алепо от Асад: бивши джихадисти, станали автократи, искат нова роля в Сирия – haroonabadvital.com