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12 years ago, businessman Ivanishvili was considered the hope of Georgia. But the more he clings to power, the more people turn against him. How could events develop in Georgia? DW with situation analysis.
Until the middle of last week, it seemed that the Georgian Dream Party had escaped its controversial electoral victory on October 26, and that it would be able to rule for a fourth consecutive term without any problems.
At the end of October, the data of the Central Election Commission, according to which the party of businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili received an absolute majority of 89 seats in parliament, and the opposition only 61 seats, caused outrage. German public television channel ARD reports that the opposition’s appeals, joined by President Salome Zurabishvili, were initially followed by only a few thousand people.
When the Georgian Dream party called on the representatives to meet independently and appoint the new government, an unconstitutional procedure, only a few hundred people turned out in front of the parliament building. It seemed that the protest movement had run out of strength.
Game over
But then those ruling Ivanishvili took another step and the glass spilled: Ivanishvili had Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announce that the government would end negotiations with the EU on membership by the end of 2028.
Kobakhidze added that, despite this, Georgia will join the European Union in 2030. But it is clear that people no longer believe his game: on the one hand, EU membership is mentioned as a goal – because opinion polls for years show that a majority is in favor of it, but at the same time Corresponding steps have not been taken, especially those that would allow this. Fair distribution of power in the country.
Immediately after Kobakhidze’s words, people took to the streets. And they are becoming more and more common – in front of Parliament in Tbilisi and throughout the country, ARD wrote.
Similar to Putin and Orban
The calls for resignation during the protests are reminiscent of the mass demonstrations in 2012, when discontent against then-President Mikheil Saakashvili built up to the point that billionaire Ivanishvili was able to use his resources to build a party and bring about a change in power.
Since then, the “Georgian Dream” has consistently advanced in opinion polls and in elections against a divided and somewhat discredited opposition. At the same time, the ruling party is behaving more and more authoritarianly, as if its role models were Putin and Orban, ARD reports.
The government has been violently dispersing protests, with demonstrators arming themselves with ski goggles, raincoats, tear gas masks, and water cannons. On Sunday evening, demonstrators waved European flags and sang the national anthem late at night in the capital, Tbilisi, and other cities. The police dispersed them with water cannons and tear gas, and some of them fired projectiles and fired missiles.
In what scenario will things develop?
People are asking themselves the troubling question of how things will end: Will the government trample resistance and jail the opposition, as Lukashenko did in Belarus in 2021? Will the protests continue for weeks and destabilize the country, as happened on the Maidan in Ukraine in 2013, and will Russia be able to exploit the circumstances to intervene?
Or might the population be able to conduct a peaceful transfer of power, as happened in Armenia in 2018, when law enforcement officers no longer had any useful action against the protesting masses?
Civil disobedience
Meanwhile, hundreds of civil servants are distancing themselves from the government, German public law media write. This process began with the announcement of diplomats and the resignation of ambassadors, a reference to the Constitution in which “Euro-Atlantic integration” was written.
War Ministry staff also stated that they would act in accordance with the Constitution – this was taken as a signal on their part that they were not prepared to confront their own population, ARD reports.
They were joined by judges and other employees of the administration and the central bank, as well as companies, universities and media outlets close to the government. President Zurabishvili described what happened as a “strong civil disobedience movement.”
The president challenges the government
Zurabishvili tries to coordinate resistance. She announced that she will remain in her position until after the end of her term, which ends on December 14, until a legitimate parliament is formed to determine the government and a new president can be elected.
Zurabishvili and the protesters have repeatedly appealed for support from the European Union and the United States, which are seen as showing excessive restraint, while those close to the ruling media and Russian intelligence chiefs say what happened is a Western orchestration.
The US State Department has ended the strategic partnership with Georgia, which was mostly of symbolic importance, ARD reported. The new European Union foreign policy commissioner, Kaya Kallas, announced “direct consequences.”
If the opposition has not yet been a reliable alternative for the majority of Georgians, it is now clear that Ivanishvili is pushing the country towards an ever deeper crisis, ARD writes.
Ivanishvili is convinced that he will only be able to maintain his security if he remains in power no matter what, says his former partner Georgi Gharia, who now heads an opposition party. While working as a businessman in Russia in the 1990s, Ivanishvili realized how dangerous Vladimir Putin was. But instead of caring about stability in his country, he makes it more vulnerable to Russian influence.
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