Грузинците протестират, за да са в Европа, но шансът им остава малък – haroonabadvital.com
Georgia will still join the EU in 2030, but membership will be achieved “in dignity.”
The suspension of relations with the European Union is expected to cause mass protests. For several nights in a row, tension, including clashes with the police, did not subside in Tbilisi and a number of other Georgian cities.
Fireworks vs. water cannons and tear gas: Fourth night of protests in Georgia (video)
Belarusian alternative or color revolution
On her first day as EU foreign policy chief, Kaya Kallas condemned the violence against demonstrators by the ruling camp.
From Kazakhstan, Vladimir Putin denied interference. But at the same time, he expressed his admiration for the “courage and character” shown by the Georgian authorities in defending their “point of view.” Moscow appears to be satisfied with the decision taken by Ivanishvili to turn its back on Europe.
| The situation in Georgia remains unpredictable. |
One possibility is for Georgian Dream to quell the demonstrations with a firm hand and with Russia’s blessing. This happened in Belarus after 2020. Arrests, show trials and civil society prosecutions using the newly passed Foreign Agents Law would follow.
The other option is to repeat the color revolutions of the 2000s, or at worst, the 2013-2014 field, where quite a few casualties fell. Or the wave of protest in Armenia that brought Nikol Pashinyan to power in 2018. In any case, the positive scenario passes through new elections under international supervision.
The Kremlin saw in Georgia “all the signs of the Orange Revolution.”
Georgia’s desire to be with the West
Whatever comes next, there is one clear conclusion. In Georgia, a significant part of society is ready to fight in every way for the country’s accession to the West. The European Union is very popular.
Even if the “Georgian Dream” enjoyed the support of a large percentage of voters (even without the manipulation and use of addiction – just as unfortunately happens in our country), this was partly because on paper it was pro-EU membership.
| At the same time, the idea of Europe is able to bring into the streets many willing to take personal risks. Just as happened in Kiev in 2013, after then-President Viktor Yanukovych decided not to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union. |
Or like the protests of Macedonian citizens in 2015-2016. Against the long-term rule of VMRO-DPMNE and EU membership as a recipe for dealing with corruption and the occupying state.
Photo gallery: Police in Georgia use tear gas to disperse protesters
Why might joining the European Union be an unattainable goal?
But the problem is that this civic energy is often dissipated and does not lead to lasting political change. Wicked political practices, institutional dependencies, and corruption are deeply rooted and typically adapt to changes in power. Examples from Eastern Europe are not one or two.
Accession to the European Union has also unfortunately proven to be an elusive goal. Realistically, the chances of North Macedonia, Ukraine or Georgia are not particularly high.
| Why is this happening? |
First of all, the EU itself is unable to build a workable policy. There is disagreement among member states. Some are “for” rapid expansion. There are others who are not convinced and see defects such as the weakening of the European Union, and the bad experience with countries such as Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, and others.
This is why ideas about “associate membership” are being promoted as an alternative to full participation in the EU with corresponding access to resources and powers in collective institutions. Such proposals were put forward last year in a French-German report on possible reforms in preparation for further expansion.
Second, individual member states can obstruct the process in order to advance their own positions and interests. The obvious example is Bulgaria and the veto imposed in 2020. North Macedonia. There will be more similar cases. For example, Poland, which has so far supported Ukraine, may one day block accession talks due to disputes over agriculture.
Third, the impact of the geopolitical situation. The all-out invasion of Ukraine literally revived EU enlargement. Member countries have taken bold steps – for example, initiating accession negotiations with Ukraine, Moldova, Albania, North Macedonia (with additional conditions), and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
But geopolitics is also a deficiency.
As long as Ukraine remains at war, its full integration into the European Union will remain in doubt. In Moldova and Georgia, Moscow will use its full political tools to discredit pro-European forces and block the reforms demanded by Brussels on its way to membership.
Countries like Georgia and Serbia have chosen to find a balance between the West and Russia rather than stand firmly with the EU. Now Tbilisi has also taken a sharp turn for reasons known only to Ivanishvili.
Despite its internal problems, the European Union is attractive. Georgia is further evidence of Europe’s influence, as well as the courage of its citizens in defending its values.
The European Union itself has not developed, and is not in a position to develop a policy that can replace enlargement. Unfortunately, this by no means guarantees a happy political ending for supporters of European integration in countries like Georgia.
Georgian opposition leader arrested after fourth night of protests
The “Analysis” column presents different points of view, and the opinions expressed do not necessarily coincide with the editorial position of “Dnevnik” magazine.
